ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE

November 3, 2020 

Florida's General Election

As polls opened across Florida on Election Day, more than half of Florida voters had already cast ballots. Of Florida’s 14 million+ registered voters, nearly 9 million people went to early-voting locations or voted by mail. For context, Floridians cast 9.5 million votes in 2016. These 2020 early and mail-in votes were submitted by 66.2% of registered Democrats and 65.8% of registered Republicans, as well as 51.5% of no-party affiliated voters. 

Keeping true to the “swing state” title, Florida’s state and federal elections had a significant level of unpredictability. While some precincts are still not 100% reported, we wanted to send out a preliminary summary highlighting the unofficial results. 

No United States Senate seats, all Congressional seats, half of the State Senate, and all State House seats are up for election this year. Several incumbents won reelection automatically as they faced no opposition in the general. Due to the retirement of Congressman Yoho and Congressman Rooney only 2 Congressional seats are “open,” meaning no incumbent is defending the position. In the Florida Senate, only 9 of that body’s 40 seats races were open, and in the Florida House, both term limits and members’ higher office aspirations resulted in 27 open seats in the 120 member institution. Also on Florida's ballot are several amendments to the State Constitution, which must clear a 60% threshold to succeed.

For your convenience, below is a link to the most updated information from the Florida Division of Elections.

Federal Races

In Florida, President Trump defeated Vice President Biden by a margin considered very healthy by Florida standards, over 200k votes. 

All but two Congressional incumbents won their re-elections. Below is a breakdown of several races involving competitive and open seats. 

In the 3rd Congressional District, Kat Cammack, who worked as retiring Congressman Yoho’s campaign manager and deputy chief of staff, emerged victorious in the General election in this Republican leaning seat.

In the 4th Congressional District, Congressman John Rutherford (R) cruised to defeat challenger Donna Deegan (D), a long-time former Jacksonville news anchor. Rutherford remains undefeated in a string of campaigns that saw him serve 12 years as Jacksonville's sheriff before winning election to Congress in 2016.

In the 13th Congressional District, Congressman Charlie Crist (D) fended off challenger Anna Paulina Luna (R), an Air Force veteran who had support from top allies of President Donald Trump. 

In the 15th Congressional District, Scott Franklin (R), a former Naval Officer and current Lakeland Commissioner,defeated Alan Cohn (D), a Peabody Award-winning television investigative journalist. Franklin replaces Congressman Ross Spano (R) who was defeated in the primary election.

In the 16th Congressional District, Congressman Vern Buchanan (R) withstood a challenge from Democratic state representative Margaret Good (D).

In the 19th Congressional District, a solid Republican seat, former state legislator Byron Donalds (R) defeated Cyndi Banyai (D) to replace retiring Congressman Francis Rooney. 

In the 26th Congressional District, Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) lost her to seat to Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez (R). 

In the 27th Congressional District, Congresswoman Donna Shalala (D) lost to Cuban-American journalist and former Telemundo anchor Maria Elvira Salazar (R). 

State Senate

Half of the Florida Senate was up for reelection this election cycle, plus a special election to replace Sen. Tom Lee, who resigned early. We project that Florida Senate Republicanswill maintain a 23-17 majority, unchanged from the current breakdown, although one Miami seat remains within recount territory.

In District 3, Rep. Loranne Ausley (D), a current state Representative with deep Tallahassee roots, defeated Marva Preston (R), a former law enforcement officer. Ausley will replace Sen. Bill Montford (D) who termed out of this historically blue seat.

North Central Florida’s largely rural District 5 saw Jennifer Bradley (R), wife of outgoing Senator Rob Bradley, win her election in the Republican-leaning Senate seat. 

A reliably red district comprised of Seminole and Volusia counties recently became a “toss-up” due to population and demographic changes in the North Orlando suburbs. However, former state Representative Jason Brodeur (R)secured the victory by just shy of 10,000 votes in District 9, despite having significant national money pumped into the race in support of Patricia Sigman (D).

In District 20, former state Representative and head of the Department of Veterans Affairs Danny Burgess (R) defeated Kathy Lewis (D) to replace Senator Tom Lee, who exited the Senate before the end of his term. Burgess had a short window to campaign after the vacancy was created, but drew on his previous legislative relationships as well as support from Senate President Designate Wilton Simpson to quickly scale up his campaign. 

Sarasota-Bradenton’s District 31 will shift from term-limited Senate President Bill Galvano (R) to his friend and ally,former state Representative Jim Boyd (R), who was poised for victory well before Election Day.

Ft. Myers will have a new senator for the first time in 10 years, with state Representative Ray Rodrigues (R) winning his election to replace term-limited Lizbeth Benacquisto (R).

In deep blue Broward, state Representative Tina Polsky (D) easily defeated Brian Norton (R) to replace District 29’s current Senator, Kevin Rader (D), who chose to leave two years early to spend more time with family.

Southeast Miami’s District 37, consisting of Coral Gables and Key Biscayne, saw a hard-fought battle between Ileana Garcia (R), a former news anchor and founder of Latinas for Trump, and state Senator Jose Javier Rodriguez (D).   As of tonight, the race is too close to call with a margin of less than 100 votes. We'll send an update when more information is available.

South Miami-Dade and all of the Keys, a diverse and competitive district, drew millions from both parties to try to secure this purple seat which has been in Anitere Flores’ (R) hands since 2010. Ultimately, state representative Anna Maria Rodriguez (R) defeated Javier Fernandez (D), keeping District 39 in the red column for at least another two years. 

State House

In the Florida House of Representatives, all 120 seats were on the ballot. A majority of the seats were not contentious, but several districts with larger percentages of independent voters went into election day as toss-ups. For the last two years, Republicans have held a 73 to 47 advantage, but a number of those Republicans were barraged by outside national money by groups looking to flip state houses blue. In the end, Republicans ended up gaining a net four seats, a huge victory for the Republicans. 

In the Democratic stronghold of Tallahassee’s District 9, former Democratic Party of Florida chair Allison Tant (D) defeated challenger Jim Kallinger (R) to replace Lorrane Ausley (D) who left her House seat to run for the Senate. 

In Jacksonville’s District 15, incumbent Wyman Duggan (R) was victorious after a surprisingly close election from business owner and minister Tammyette Thomas (D). 

Volusia County incumbent Republican Elizabeth Fetterhoff (R) defeated former state Rep Patrick Henry (D), whose incumbency she ended by just 61 votes in District 26’s 2018 election.  

In another Volusia County seat—District 27—Barnaby Webster (R) defeated Dolores Guzman (D) to replace term-limited David Santiago.

In one of newly competitive Seminole County’s House seats, District 29, state Rep. Scott Plakon (R) held off a challenge from progressive attorney Tracy Kagen (D) whom he defeated in 2018 by 1% of the vote. 

In Northeast Orlando, state Rep. Joy Goff-Marcil (D) withstood a repeat challenge from former state Rep. Bob Cortes (R), whom she defeated in 2018 to flip District 30 blue. 

In District 44, state Rep. Geraldine Thompson (D) faced a formidable challenge from Bruno Portigliatti (R) in this purple seat, who was heavily supported by the state Republican party. In the end, she successfully defended her seat.

Just east of Orlando, District 50’s Rep. Rene Plascencia (R) was the target of more than a half million dollars in outside funding, which was still not enough to enable challenger Nina Yoakum (D) to unseat him.

In Southeast Hillsborough’s purple District 59, Andrew Learned (D) defeated Michael Owen (R) to replace state Rep. Adam Hattersley (D).  

In District 60, South Tampa incumbent Jackie Toledo (R) defeated Julie Jenkins (D). This seat has always been competitive, it has been in Republican control for years, and it will stay that way for the next two years. 

When Jamie Grant (R) recently announced his appointment as the state’s Chief Technology Officer, Speaker Designate Chris Sprowls quickly recruited Traci Koster (R) to step in to defend this seat. Despite Jessica Harrington (D) building significant strength over the last year, Sprowls’ support and Traci’s quick work clinched her the ability to represent this West Tampa Bay seat.

In a  Pinellas County spoiler, District 69’s, Jennifer Webb (D) was defeated by Linda Chaney (R). This was not expected to flip, but the Republican turnout in this competitive district provided enough momentum to do so.

In District 72, a Sarasota County seat that has vacillated between parties over the past several years, Fiona McFarland (R) defeated Drake Buckland (D) to replace Margaret Good (D), who left to run for Congress.

In St. Lucie County’s District 84, Dana Trabulsy (R) defeated Rep. Delores Hogan Johnson (D), making this another feather in the cap of Republicans, who did not bank on flipping this seat.

In Southeast Palm Beach County’s District 89, Jim Bonfiglio (D) was defeated by incumbent Rep. Mike Caruso (R) in another target seat for the House Democrats, which the Republicans were able to withstand. 

Further south in Broward County, incumbent Chip LaMarca (R) defeated Linda Gonzalez (D) in District 93. The only Republican held House seat in Broward county was a target for the Democrats to flip blue and it was very close to coming to fruition. 

In District 103, Cindy Polo (D), the incumbent, was defeated by insurance defense attorney Tom Fabricio ( R). This represents a very significant Republican win in this difficult district.

In Western Miami’s District 105, which was open due to incumbent Ana Maria Rodriguez’s decision to run for State Senate, recent law school graduate David Borrero (R) defeated immigration attorney Maureen Porras (D).

In Southeast Miami’s District 114, previously held by Javier Fernandez (D) who elected to challenge Ana Maria Rodriguez (R) for the State Senate seat being vacated by Anitere Flores (R), Demi Busatta Cabrera (R), a former aide Flores, defeated Jean-Pierre Bado (D).

Despite support from Eric Holder’s PAC and other national interests, District 115 will not change hands to community advocate Franccesca Cesti-Browne (D). Incumbent Vance Aloupis (R), one of the hardest working House members this cycle, will remain in this seat and likely outperform the top of the ticket in this district, which went for Andrew Gillum (D) for Governor in 2018.

Incumbent Anthony Rodriquez (R) defended his seat against Ricky Junquera (D) in central Miami’s District 118. Junquera, a Sierra Club employee and Vice-Chair of the Miami Dade Democratic Party, was able to marshal significant national resources, but ultimately, could not overcome Rodriguez’s ground game.  

The Florida Keys will remain in Republican control with Jim Mooney (R) defeating Clint Barras (D) to succeed Rep. Holly Raschein (R). 

State Constitutional Amendments

Amendment 1: Citizenship Requirement to Vote in Florida Elections—Passed

The amendment would slightly alter the wording of the state constitution to say that “only a citizen” of the United States can vote, without changing the effect of existing law (which says that “every citizen” can vote).

Amendment 2: Raising Florida’s Minimum Wage—Projected to Pass

This ballot initiative would gradually raise the minimum hourly wage in Florida from $8.56 to $15 by 2026.

Amendment 3: All Voters Vote in Primary Elections for State Legislature, Governor and Cabinet—Failed

The amendment would allow all registered voters, regardless of party affiliation, to vote in a primary for governor, state Legislature and Cabinet-level races. The two highest vote-getters—regardless of party—would advance to the general election. This system is often known as a “jungle primary.” It could potentially mean that two Democrats or two Republicans face each other in the general election, and thus was widely panned by both parties.

Amendment 4: Voter Approval of Constitutional Amendments—Failed

Instead of a single referendum requiring the approval of 60 percent of voters, this amendment would effectively double the requirement, necessitating 60 percent approval in two separate elections to become effective.

Amendment 5: Limitation on Homestead Assessments—Passed

Currently, Floridians who move from one homesteaded property to another have two years from the year of the sale of the first home to claim the tax benefit. This would give homeowners an additional year to do so.

Amendment 6: Ad Valorem Tax Discount for Spouses of Certain Deceased Veterans Who Had Permanent, Combat-Related Disabilities—Passed

This amendment would allow spouses of veterans who were honorably discharged, over 65, and permanently disabled by combat to continue to claim their property tax exemption after the veteran’s death. The spouse must continue to hold title and live there permanently, but can transfer the exemption to a new property in certain circumstances.